I should be so lucky

Ah, remember the 2007 FIBA Asia Championship? Where because of some Taiwanese, we got a really bad FIBA ranking since we sent AA-teams (if you use Excel, you'll get this) to FIBA tournaments where we'd lose by 40 points or more to Anjo Yllana's team.

So we got stuck on the group of death and never got out; the stats give proof that Group A was the "group of death" where the margins of victory never exceeded 13 points, as opposed to Group D for example, where the maximum blowout was a 40-point drubbing of Korea to Hong Kong.

So, where do we stand? Prior to the 2007 tourney, we were #65 in the world. Now we are not that much better, at #63.

So how did those FIBA honchos come up with those groupings? By the luck of the draw. But it's not via a total 100% "luck" since they separate the qualifiers into 5 pots. Actually, it's only 4 but the host team is on a separate pot and they can choose what group to go to.

In 2007, these were how the pots were drawn:

Pot 1 - the 4 finishers in the 2005 championships:
#11 China
#24 Lebanon
#25 Korea
#26 Qatar

Pot 2:
#37 Iran
#40 Chinese Taipei
#47 Syria
#61 Jordan

Pot 3:
#46 India
#50 Hong Kong
#56 Kazakhstan
#72 Indonesia

Pot 4:
#44 Kuwait
#56 UAE
#65 Philippines

The mechanics is that the teams from Pot 1 are drawn first. Like, Iran goes to Group A, Lebanon to Group C, and so on. Then those from Pot 2, then Pot 3 (at this point the host can also place themselves on a group) and finally Pot 4. Theoretically, the higher-numbered pot you are in, the easier your group should be, since you'll won't meet the theoretically better teams.

Currently, these are the current qualifiers, in their current FIBA rankings:
#10 China
#23 Iran
#24 Lebanon
#27 Qatar
#41 Kazakhstan
#42 Jordan
#46 India
#52 Kuwait

If FIBA Asia continues with their practice of assigning the previous tourney's top 4 in Pot 1, it'll be composed of:
#23 Iran
#24 Lebanon
#26 Korea
#41 Kazakhstan

Note that Korea and Kazakhstan haven't qualified yet, but it's sureball that Kazakhstan will qualify, as long as the other "-stans" in Central Asia won't join in qualification and allow them and India to qualify.

As for Korea, it's much more dicier, since FIBA Asia ditched the old method of qualifying and used the FIBA Asia Stankovic Cup as the new automatic qualifying tournament, instead of the previous tourney's top 4. Now, since China is an automatic qualifier as the host, East Asia still has 2 berths remaining, with three teams with realistic chances of qualifying: Korea, #33 Japan and #40 Chinese Taipei.

In Southeast Asia, it'll be the ultimate national disaster if the Philippines fails to qualify in the now 4-team SEABA tournament, especially with the Thais withdrawing. Only #61 Malaysia and #64 Indonesia have realistic chances of qualifying aside from the Philippines.

In the Gulf, #64 UAE, unranked Bahrain, unranked Oman and #66 Saudi Arabia will battle it out for their 2 berths.

So, I expect the Philippines to finally get out of the dreaded Pot 4 and go possibly to Pot 3 or even Pot 2. Predicted Pot 2 teams might be, with those in italics almost sure to be included:
#26 Korea
#27 Qatar
#33 Japan
#40 Chinese Taipei
#41 Kazakhstan
#46 India
a team from the #60s range

Pot 3 might be:
#40 Chinese Taipei
#41 Kazakhstan
#46 India
#52 Kuwait
#61 Malaysia
#63 Philippines
#64 Indonesia
#64 UAE

Pot 4 might be, with those in the italics almost sure to be included if they qualify:
#52 Kuwait
#61 Malaysia
#63 Philippines
#64 Indonesia
#64 UAE
#66 Saudi Arabia
unranked Bahrain
unranked Oman

As you can see, the more theoretically crappier teams that qualify, theoretically the easier the groupings can get, and we can even be assigned to Pot 2 much easier.

It all depends on the luck of the draw.