August 30, 2013

2013 PBA Governors' Cup team standings, magic and tragic numbers!

Why not a PBA version of our magic and tragic numbers? For details, see this.

First the twiddly bits: The text colored green are magic numbers. If that reaches "1", it clinches a playoff. If it reaches "0", it qualifies, and I'd replace it with "IN".
The text colored red are tragic numbers. If that reaches "0", it is eliminated, and I'd replace it with "OUT".

PBA Governors' Cup
San Mig Coffee63.6672ININ
Rain or Shine54.5563ININ
Barako Bull45.5564OUTIN
Talk 'N Text36.3335OUT1
Brgy. Ginebra36.3335OUT1
Updated after games of September 22. 

Tiebreak between 5-4 teams: Meralco wins over Rain or Shine (MER 82-76 ROS).
Tiebreak between 4-5 teams: Barako Bull wins over GlobalPort (BAR 98-97 GP).

 On next game day (Air21 vs. Alaska, Talk 'N Text vs. Barangay Ginebra):
  • Petron and San Mig Coffee locked at the nos. 1 and 2 seeds, respectively.
  • If Air21 and Talk 'N Text win:
Barako Bull1871880.995

    • Meralco and Rain or Shine seeded 3rd and 4th, respectively.
    • GlobalPort, Barako Bull and Alaska seeded 5th, 6th and 7th respectively.
Ginebra1561451.076 -
Talk 'N Text1541560.987 +

    • Talk 'N Text's quotient will increase, and Ginebra's quotient will decrease. Following the explanation below that PAvg=PD as long as there are three games are used, a 9-point TNT win will give them either a bye to the #8 seed playoff, or an outright #8 seed playoff berth. In all other cases, Ginebra will have a bye to the #8 seed playoff, or an outright #8 seed playoff berth, with Talk 'N Text and Air21 either playing a playoff for a berth for the #8 playoff, or Talk 'N Text advancing outright.
  • If Air21 and Barangay Ginebra win: 
    • Meralco and Rain or Shine seeded 3rd and 4th respectively.
Barako Bull2912791.043
Brgy. Ginebra2882910.990

    • Barako Bull, Alaska, Brgy. Ginebra and GlobalPort seeded 5th, 6th, 7th and 8th respectively.
    • Air21 and Talk 'N Text eliminated.
  • If Alaska and Talk 'N Text win:
Rain or Shine1551760.881

    • Meralco seeded 3rd, Alaska and Rain or Shine to play for #4 seed.
    • Barako Bull seeded 6th, GlobalPort seeded 7th.
    • Brgy. Ginebra and Talk 'N Text to play for #8 seed.
    • Air21 eliminated.
  • If Alaska and Brgy. Ginebra win:
    • Meralco seeded 3rd, Alaska and Rain or Shine to play for #4 seed.
      (Same scenario as when Alaska and Talk 'N Text winning.)
Barako Bull2021881.074
Brgy. Ginebra1891891.000
    • Barako Bull, Brgy. Ginebra and GlobalPort seeded 6th, 7th and 8th respectively.
    • Talk 'N Text and Air21 eliminated.
Best and worst case scenarios for all teams:
  • Petron is seeded 1st no matter what.
  • San Mig Coffee is seeded 2nd no matter what.
  • Meralco is seeded 3rd no matter what.
  • Rain or Shine:
    • Best:  #4 seed if Air21 wins.
    • Worst: Playoff for #4 seed if Alaska wins.
  • Alaska
    • Best: Playoff for #4 seed if they win.
    • Worst: #6 seed if Air21 wins.
  • Barako Bull
    • Best: #5 seed if Air21 and Brgy. Ginebra win.
    • Worst: #6 any other result
  • GlobalPort
    • Best: #5 seed if Air21 and Talk 'N Text win.
    • Worst: #8 seed if Alaska and Brgy. Ginebra win.
  • Barangay Ginebra
    • Best: #7 seed if Air21 and they win.
    • Worst: Playoff for a berth to the playoff for the #8 seed if they lose by 9 points or more.
  • Talk 'N Text:
    • Best: Playoff for #8 seed if they win.
    • Worst: Eliminated if they lose.
  • Air21
    • Best: Playoff for #8 if they and Talk 'n Text wins.
    • Worst: Eliminated if Brgy. Ginebra wins.
The PBA breaks ties via the "PBA Quotient", which is "points (goal) average" (GA) elsewhere in the world, and is popularly called as "quotients" (arguably the better term), locally. The quotient is divided by adding the points the team scored ("points for" or PF), then dividing it on the number of points its opponents scored ("points against" or PA). Another popular way of breaking ties is via point (goal) differential (PD), which subtracting the number of points the opponents scored from the total points a team scored. Of course, there's the head-to-head record.

When there is one game to base how the tie is broken. Head-to-head record, point differential and point average gives out the same result: the winning team has the better head-to-head record, and has the higher point differential and average.

When there are two games to base, head-to-head record may deviate from point average and differential. A tied "series" might either still be tied on point average and differential when both teams won against each other on the same number of points. In other cases, one team has the advantage when it had a bigger win vs. its opponent.

When there are more than two games to consider, there might be differing results in point differential (PD) and goal average (GA), particularly if two teams have equal PD, but have differing PF and PA. PAvg. favors lower-scoring games. For example:
  • Team A has 310 PF & 297 PA, it's +13 PD and 1.044 GA
  • Team B has 292 PF & 279 PA, it's also +13 PD but they're ahead on GA w/ a 1.047. 
Note that PD and PAvg will deviate from each other if and only if two or more teams have identical PD. Otherwise, one can safely use PD as a substitute GA without sacrificing accuracy.

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