May 27, 2013

60-30-10: Compare it with 2010!

So you've heard of the 60-30-10 conspiracy theory. You can choose to believe whatever explanation there is, but one thing has bugged as: has it always been this way? A pattern when you add up per party totals in senatorial elections? First, a refresher. Here's the 2013 Senate election results per region: 
The national pattern quite holds, but there are minor differences now per region. Something to the tune of 6%. The pattern deviates further when you break it down into provinces and cities which were directly canvassed by the NBOC:

Now, here's the 2010 presidential election per region: 
As seen here, the 42-26-16-11-5 national ratio does not hold up in most regions. But this is a single-winner election, and we can't compare this one to the 2013 senatorial election. What we can compare it with, is the 2010 senatorial election. 

Here's the chart of the 2010 senatorial election, and compare it to the 2013 results per province.

But first, there were several shared guest candidates here, so it's imperative that I disclose how I came up with this chart.
For LP: Acosta, Bautista, M., Biazon, Drilon, Guingona, Hontiveros, Lacson, Lao, Lim, Recto, Roco.
For NP: Cayetano, Defensor-Santiago, Marcos, Maza, Mitra, Ocampo, S., Ople, Pimentel, Querubin, Remulla, Tamano
For PMP: Bautista, JV, De Venecia, Enrile, Estrada, Lozada, Plaza, Tatad.
For Lakas-Kampi: Bello, Guico, Lambino, Langit, Lapid, Revilla.
For others: Entire KBL, Kapatiran, Bangon Pilipinas slates, Caunan, Osmena, E., Osmena, S., Palparan, Princesa, Sotto. 

Data came from Ateneo's mirror of the now dead COMELEC-Smartmatic website for the 2010 election results (for provincial-level results), and the official COMELEC website for the national total per candidate. Unlike the "Transparency server" that was used in 2013, the results in this website were the actual results used by the board of canvassers. The reason I came up with this conclusion is that the vote totals here are identical with the vote totals of the winning candidates displayed on the official COMELEC website.

I realized you haven't read most of what I've said above and went directly here. Can't blame you LOL
(National totals at the far right.)

Time to draw up your own conclusions!

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