September 17, 2013

Provisional 2013 PBA Draft order

Hey, it's that time of the year when PBA fans get to care if Raymond Almazan would either be the next Kerby Raymundo or the next Bonel Balingit, if Greg Slaughter is the next EJ Feihl or the next Junemar Fajardo, if Kevin Alas is as good as advertised, if Bobby Ray Parks is signing up, if Sudan Daniel is the great Filipino center... wait, he's an import, and if we'd see the next Wilmer Ong from the collegiate ranks.

This year's PBA Draft is the deepest since 2011 (heh) when the Gilas 1.0 boys signed up. But since Gilas 2.0 was an (almost) all-PBA (Douthit) roster, the remaining non-PBA of the 2011 SEA Games Sinag team: Parks (if he wants to), Pascual, Slaughter, Salva and Garcia (Ravena's still not eligible) will jump ship.

The draft order is determined by the weighted average of each team's final position in each conference, with the Philippine Cup having a heavier weight. The winner of the finals is ranked 1st, then the loser is 2nd; the losing semifinalists are ranked via elimination round record, then, the same is done for the losing quarterfinalists, and finally, the eliminated teams.

This is how they currently stack up, with the team picking first on top.

TeamPHICOMGOVTotalRound 1 tradeRound 2 trade
Globalport101068.8San Mig Coffee
Air2188108.6Brgy. GinebraRain or Shine (via Globalport)
Barako Bull9957.8Rain or ShineSan Mig Coffee
Brgy. Ginebra6285.4Barako BullPetron (via Barako Bull)
Petron7625.2Barako BullAir21
Meralco5735.0Barako BullAlaska (via Meralco)
Talk 'N Text1494.3Globalport (via Barako Bull)

Rain or Shine4143.5

San Mig Coffee3312.4
Barako Bull
As of games of October 26.

Air21 won the draft lottery, but they already traded that to Ginebra, so they are picking 1st.

Therefore, the drafting order is:
  1. Round 1
    1. Brgy. Ginebra
    2. San Mig Coffee
    3. Rain or Shine
    4. Barako Bull
    5. Barako Bull
    6. Barako Bull
    7. Globalport
    8. Alaska
    9. Rain or Shine
    10. San Mig Coffee
  2. Round 2
    1. Rain or Shine
    2. Globalport
    3. San Mig Coffee
    4. Petron
    5. Air21
    6. Alaska
    7. Talk 'N Text
    8. Alaska
    9. Rain or Shine
    10. Barako Bull
  3. Round 3 and beyond: Natural drafting order
    1. Air21
    2. Globalport
    3. Barako Bull
    4. Barangay Ginebra
    5. Meralco
    6. Petron
    7. Talk 'N Text
    8. Rain or Shine
    9. Alaska
    10. San Mig Coffee
With no upsets in the quarterfinals, the lottery picks are almost good as set. Globalport (traded to San Mig Coffee) and Air21 (traded to Ginebra) are guaranteed to have the top 2 picks, with only the order between them to be determined. On the draft lottery, Globalport (San Mig) has a 67% chance of winning the #1 pick, while Air21 (Ginebra) only has a 33% chance.

The order of the remaining picks are yet to be decided. Barako Bull (traded to Rain or Shine) is almost certain to pick third. The fourth to eighth picks are in flux. If Petron (traded to Barako Bull) is defeated in the semifinals, it can pick as early as fourth (its position in the Governors' Cup falling to 3rd). Rain or Shine and San Mig Coffee (Barako Bull) are almost certain to pick ninth and tenth, but not necessarily on that order; if Rain or Shine wins the title, they will own the #10 pick, otherwise, it is San Mig (Barako Bull)'s.

If Petron and San Mig Coffee meet in the finals, and Petron wins, the rankings after the elimination round would remain unchanged, and those will be used to determine which teams participate in the lottery, and the draft order of the rest of teams.

Update during the Finals

There were no upsets, so far, in the playoffs. That means the higher seeds won all of the matchups in all stages, so we're left with #1 Petron and #2 San Mig in the finals. That means the seedings for the Governors Cup held up, and that if Petron wins, the table seen above would be final; if they lose, San Mig gets to be #1, and Petron is #2.

Almost all of the remaining picks' order are already determined, except on who'd go first between Petron and Meralco. If Petron wins, their "draft points" would remain at 4.9, above Meralco's 5.0, but if they lose, their points go up to 5.2, hence giving them an earlier pick vs. Meralco. But since are both first round picks of Petron and Meralco are now owned by Barako Bull, it doesn't matter now.

Interestingly, even if San Mig doesn't win the Governors' Cup, they'd have the lowest total "draft points" (2.4 points for a win and 2.7 points for a loss, lower than Rain or Shine's 3.5 points), and get to pick last. Them having the least "draft points" implies that they are the best team in the league this season, but if they lose, that means they haven't won a title this year.

So San Mig Coffee, Ginebra and Rain or Shine have the luxury of picking one amongst Greg Slaughter, Ian Sangalang and Raymond Almazan. Probably the richest draft in recent years, as far as big men are concerned.

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