December 30, 2013

Tanking for Ray-Ray

We don't actually know if Bobby Ray Parks, Jr., who hasn't settled for a basketball nickname yet so let's just call him "Ray-Ray", will be signing up for the 2014 Draft. All we know is that his UAAP playing days are over, he has next-to-nil chance of being drafted to the NBA, and he could very well be elevated by the BDO D-League team if they're thinking of joining the big leagues.

That means if Ray-Ray's isn't going to find a UAAP rule loophole to play again in 2014, isn't going to the NBA, isn't being elevated from BDO D-League team, there's a 100% chance he'd be picked first in 2014. This has to be the easiest #1 pick since the 2009 draft where Japeth was picked #1 by Air21... and you know the story; ever since that brouhaha, Air21, now known as Barako Bull, has never dealt with a MVP ballclub ever. Well, OK, maybe not on big-time deals.

So, since there's Tanking for Wiggins, why not our own PBA version? I present, the very-ripped-off-name Tanking for Ray-Ray! Guess what, the Lina teams are custom built to tank. Well they're just custom-built to tank, whether the #1 pick is Parks or a guy like Chris Banchero.

There are quite not-so-significant difference between the PBA and NBA in determining the draft order: first, the 14 teams that didn't make it to the playoffs all have a chance to win the #1 pick, with the team with the worst record having the highest chances. In the PBA, only the two worst teams will get a shot, and the teams are ranked on the basis of their finishing places in every conference, with the Philippine Cup having the heaviest weight. The team with the highest total (or had the highest weighted rank) gets a 67% chance, while the second-worst gets 33%. The team with the highest weighted average may not have the worst winning percentage.

This means we'd only get a clear view of the top "contenders" midway through the Governors' Cup, since we'd need the results of the 2 previous conferences, plus something from the third conference. We already did this last year.

Note on how the teams are ranked: the teams in ranked by first, the stage that they were eliminated, and second, their playoff seeding. So those eliminated in the elimination rank are ranked 9th-10th. Those eliminated in the quarterfinals are ranked 5th-8th, with the team with the highest seed that is eliminated being 5th. The teams eliminated in the semifinals are ranked 3rd-4th, with the higher seed that is eliminated being 3rd. Finally, the losing finalist is ranked 2nd, and the champion is ranked 1st.

This is different from the UAAP where the loser of the #1 vs. #4 semifinal is ranked #4, while the loser of the other semifinal is ranked 3rd.

#Team Phil Cup Com Cup Gov Cup Total 1st round pick
owned by
Mock Draft
Pos Pts Pos Pts Pos Pts
1stGlobalPort7th2.810th3.010th3.08.8GinebraBobby Parks, Jr.
2ndMeralco9th3.47th2.19th2.78.2Rain or ShineChris Banchero
3rdBarako Bull6th2.49th2.78th2.47.5Barako BullStanley Pringle
4thNLEX8th3.26th1.87th2.17.3NLEXMatthew Wright
5thAlaska10th4.04th1.24th1.26.2AlaskaMatthew Rosser
6thGinebra3rd1.28th2.46th1.85.4GinebraGarvo Lanete
7thSan Miguel4th1.65th1.55th1.54.6San Mig (via Barako)Jake Pascual
8thTalk 'N Text5th2.02nd0.63rd0.93.5Barako BullKevin Alas
9thRain or Shine2nd0.83rd0.92nd0.62.3Rain or ShineRonald Pascual
10thSan Mig1st0.41st0.31st0.31.0San MigPrince Caperal
11thExpansion team

Rodney Brondial
12thExpansion team

Brian Haruela
Final rankings. Includes lottery result.

Lottery odds:
Team (Picked owned by)Odds
GlobalPort (owned by Ginebra)67%
Meralco (owned by Rain or Shine)33%

Trades involving draft picks:
Note on expansion teams: They'd have their own lottery on who goes 11th and 12th. I presume both would have equal (50%) chances of winning.

Note that I may not have gotten all trades that involve draft picks, yet.

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