Showing posts with label Decis10n. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Decis10n. Show all posts

June 4, 2010

The null votes controversy: All you needed to know

First, I'll show you a map of the Philippines depicting two things: which vice presidential candidate won there, and the proportion of the null votes from the total votes cast; blue for Roxas, orange for Binay and green for other (the only other candidate that won in a province is guess who... Edu Manzano).

The darker the shade, the more null votes there are per a hundred votes cast.


What are the patterns?

For the most part, the farther away from urban areas, the darker the shade. The national total (except for uncanvassed COCs and Camarines Norte, is 4.12%.

Roxas had six provinces/cities that he won in which the null votes was 20% or more. They are Masbate, Misamis Occidental, Negros Occidental, Northern Samar, Tawi-Tawi and Zamboanga del Norte. Together, these account for 2,436,366 votes.

Binay had six provinces/cities that he won in which the null votes was 20% or more. They are Basilan, Biliran, Leyte, (Western) Samar, Sulu and Zamboanga del Sur. Together, these account for 2,044,098 votes.

What does this tell us?

First what are null votes? This are votes that the PCOS machine disregarded. Either the person shaded more than the minimum number (one for vice president), didn't shade (an abstention).

Looking at the ballot (see thumbnail on the right), we can see that Roxas has three "neighbors", Legarda, Manzano and Yasay. Unlike Acosta who was first on the ballot, and probably a great deal of his votes were boo-boos, we can not say the a great dal of Roxas' votes would've been wasted, since the name "Roxas" starts with a letter "R", something you won't expect to see first on the ballot (ergo, if you'd vote for him, you'd look for his name and not just shade the circle beside first name (which is Binay).).

On the flipside, if you're voting for Binay, you'd expect his name to appear early. After all, "Binay" starts with the letter "B".

Unless you are that stupid.

So let's say we'd count these null votes. The question is how?
For overvotes, which shade would we count, when there are at least two shades?
For undervotes/abstentions, well, I don't know how'd they count that.

More maps!









President

Aquino

Estrada

Villar

Teodoro

Vice President

Null votes


House

Gubernatorial




Notes:
The votes for each candidate came from the official website of the House of Representatives.
The total votes cast, including null votes, came from the website provided by Smartmatic for the 2010 elections results. Camarines Norte wasn't able to transmit their electronic COC hence appeared black on the map.

May 17, 2010

If the Decis10n Tournament was the election...

...Gordon will win not just via a landslide, but via sweep. He scored 100% of the votes. It's like vote by acclamation, without the annoying voice of Boy Nograles.
As for Nograles the Speaker, he failed to win the Davao mayoralty election, but his son made it, joining about 100 Lakas Kampi Comgressmen who are all eager and perky to vote Congresswoman-elect Gloria Arroyo as the incoming Speaker.

Check out the House Watch at the upper right hand corner to see which party has the advantage in the race for the speakership.

May 9, 2010

Noynoy vs. Gordon: The Decis10n Tournament Finale

Noynoy held off a late Villar surge to clinch their semifinal, while Dick had a relatively easier matchup against Gibo to set up our presidential finale: Dick vs. Noynoy. Winner gets a free PCOS machine.

Mar Roxas walloped Loren Legarda to win the vice presidential finale.
The results:
President:
(1) Noynoy Aquino def. (4) Manny Villar 8-7.
(2) Richars Gordon def. (3) Gilbert Teodoro 10-6.

Vice president:
(2) Mar Roxas def. (4) Loren Legarda 5-2.

May 3, 2010

What's the best Verbatim logo?

It's election season so I'll be sporting customized logos in time for the elections!
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And main yellow one, which is for the former President and not for Noynoy. He hijacked the yellow ribbon for his own causes.

So which of the four is your favorite?
(If you can SUPPLY me with graphics from other candidates, I can make versions of them.)

April 26, 2010

Summer Madness! Verbatim Tourney Semis!

It's the final four and all races were tight in the quarterfinals:

Presidential match-ups:
(4) Manny Villar won over (5) Vetellano Acosta 4-3.
(3) Gilberto Teodoro won over (6) Joseph Estrada 5-4.

Vice-presidential match-ups:
(4) Loren Legarda won over (1) Bayani Fernando 5-4.
(2) Mar Roxas won over (3) Jejomar Binay 6-4.

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Which leads us to the exciting semifinals in the presidential race:
(1)
Noynoy Aquino vs. (4) Manny Villar
(2)
Richard Gordon vs. (3) Gilberto Teodoro

And the Finals for the vice presidential race:
(2) Mar Roxas vs. (4) Loren Legarda

Regular season results:
Presidential:
Noynoy Aquino: 11
Richard Gordon: 10
Gilberto Teodoro: 9
Manny Villar: 3
Vetellano Acosta: 2
Joseph Estrada: 1
Others: 0

Vice presidential:
Bayani Fernando: 14
Mar Roxas: 5
Jejomar Binay: 2
Loren Legarda: 1
Others: 0

Polls are up. Voting for both rounds is up to 11:59 p.m., May 8. Championship round of the presidential race will be on Election Week (May 9-15). If a match-up ends in a tie, I will choose who will advance (i.e. I will vote myself.)

February 9, 2010

March er... Summer Madness! Decis10n-style!

Since this is a sports blog with some politics sprinkled in between, let's have a sort of a game. Let's have a single elimination tournament of the candidates! You haven't seen anything like this since the PBA didn't eliminate teams after the "classification" round!
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Here are the mechanics:
For the first two weeks, all candidates will be voted upon by the visitors of this blog. A visitor can only vote once, but they can vote as many candidates as they like.

After the third week, the candidates will be ranked. Two will be eliminated, leaving 8 presidential candidates and 6 vice presidential candidates. If there is a tie, I'll choose randomly who'll be the higher seed.

For the presidential candidates, the match-ups will be 1 vs 8, 2 vs. 7, 3 vs. 6 and 4 vs. 5. Votes will be reset back to zero for all candidates and there will be another round of voting for the next two weeks.

For the vice presidential candidates, the best two candidates are given byes, and the match-ups will be 3 vs. 6 and 4 vs. 5.

After the fifth week, the winning candidate on each match-up advances to the semifinals. The match-ups for both sets of candidates will be highest remaining seed vs. the weakest remaining seed, and the two others. Votes will be reset back to zero for all candidates and there will be another round of voting for the next two weeks.

After the seventh week, the winning candidate on each match-up advances to the final. for the Final round, votes will be reset back to zero for all candidates and there will be another round of voting for the next four weeks. The candidate with the highest vote total in the final round is the winner.

What does this game achieve? Nothing, but you can get a feel on how the candidates will fare in a sports tournament.

Presidential poll:





Vice presidential poll:





Schedule:
February 9: Start of elimination round
February 28: End of elimination round
March 1: Start of quarterfinals
March 14: End of quarterfinals
March 15: Start of semifinals
March 28: End of semifinals
March 29: Start of final
April 26: End of final
May 10: Election

January 29, 2010

The ins and outs of the party-list system

An update first on the previous post on redistricting. It is interesting to note out that in 1990, the first census after the 1987 constitution was promulgated, the population of the Philippines was at 60,703,206. According to the 2007 census, the population is 88,542,548. That is a 46% increase from 1990; if we will recalculate the minimum population as stated in the 1987 constitution, the new limit should be 365,000. This is still lower than what was previously calculated at 442,713, and probably tells us the bar then was set too low.

By now you should be well aware of the party-list system. The party-list system gives voters a "second voice" in Congress: instead of one voice coming from their district representative, we have a second representative in the form of party-lists.

Ideally, party-lists (I don't know why we call them "party-list organizations" since the party-lists are parties -- they are organizations already) should come from an underrepresented sector of the society, like the poor, women, laborers and the like. However, many party list organizations have become fronts of certain politicians, socio-political/religious groups and the like.

Image Hosted by ImageShack.usParty-lists aren't new. Party-lists are prevalent in Europe where one house of their legislature is elected in two ways: via the usual single-member constituencies, and the other via the party-list system.

In countries such as Germany, the ratio among district and party-list representatives is 1:1, that is, for every district representative, there is one party-list representative. However, one difference from the German system is that the parties contending the party-list election are parties that also contest the district elections.

The 1986 Constitutional Commission set-up the party-list system to allow more participation from the disadvantaged sectors, and to introduce proportional representation in the country. The party-list system was first implemented in the 2001 election; prior to that, the seats reserved for the party-list representatives -- then called "sectoral representatives" -- were appointed by the President. However, during President Aquino's first nominations for such sectoral representatives, the Commission on Appointments (composed of members from both houses of Congress) decreed that the appointments have to go through them. Cory would've liked to give those seats to people who should had represented such disadvantaged sectors (and as reward to people who had helped her be put to power), but the mix of her being careful not to displease anybody, and the CA's tight grip on appointees who are against their interests, made sure that such sectoral representatives appointments come at a trickle.

By the time it was finally implemented in 2001, Bayan Muna was the first party-list proclaimed by the commission, but they protested each and every pre-proclamation of candidates it took until the 2004 elections to sort out the mess. The enabling law per se was crafted so badly interpreting it needs a doctoral degree in statistics to make it work.

In the Philippines, the ratio is ideally 4:1 in favor of the district representatives. But due to the piecemeal redistricting ad infinitum of the country into many microscopic constituencies, the number has increased to 229 (the Malolos district was declared unconstitutional). This caused the party-list membership to increase to 58 -- if you'll add this up, the total membership will be 286 members, more than the 250 stated in the constitution (although the constitution is murky if the 250 limit can be surpassed even without the benefit of a law). (The formula is (Number of district representatives / 0.8) * 0.2.)

Notwithstanding the constitutionality of the maximum number of House members, and unless the Supreme Court nullifies other laws on new districts, we will have 58 party-list members in the house. The commission has approved 150 party-lists this election, and for a party-list to be guaranteed one seat, it has to win at least 2% of the national vote. Any other additional seats depends on its total votes, and the amount of seats remaining once all party-lists with 2% of the vote already have seats.

Note that there's a catch on this provision: the mathematical maximum of party-lists winning that 2% is 50. If each of those 50 party-lists won 2% of the vote, there'll be eight left additional seats -- this may not mirror the party-list vote which was the entire purpose of the system in the first place!

So what are the gimmicks done by the party-lists to get the bigger share of that party-list pie? Some of them are ingenious, such as having the first letter of their party start with the letter "A," since the parties are arranged alphabetically in the ballot. Hence a lot of "Alliance of (x)" party-lists, and party-lists that start with letter "A"; a total of 77 party-lists or 51% have names that start with the letter "A".

Some parties went further: why not used numerals as the first word in their names, so even they'd be in front of the 77 that begin with letter "A?" A total of 7 (5%) party-lists have their names starting with a numeral; the first party-list on your ballot is 1-AANI (COMELEC didn't disclose their full name). Someday, parties will emulate *N-SYNC and use special characters to stay first in the ballots, like *ANG-LADLAD.

Other party-lists are fronts by some politicians who want to get into Congress via the backdoor. One such party-list is "The True Marcos Loyalist (For God, Country and People) Association of the Phils" aka the Bantay (I don't know how they got that acronym) party-list. Their first nominee is the controversial general Jovito Palparan. I don't know if Palparan is a Marcos crony, a Marcos fanatic, or whatever Marcos-(insert word here). Palparan won't need Bantay at least for the 2010 election since he's running for the Senate as an independent.

Still others are fronts of other organizations. For example is "Buhay Hayaang Yumabong (BUHAY)" whose first nominee is Rene M. Velarde, son of El Shaddai leader Mike Velarde. Another is Alagad party-list, which is primarily composed of Iglesia ni Cristo members. And of course who would forget Bayan Muna and related party-lists which are alleged fronts of the Communist Party of the Philippines.

This 2010, it is important to know who are the nominees of the party-lists that you have considered for your vote. Remember, these nominees are ranked, those who are named first will be seated if they win at least 2%. You only have one vote, but it could be crucial (heh, here we go again), since that one vote may be the deal-breaker specially for parties just under the 2% limit. As advocated by everyone in their right frame of mind, if you're planning to support an disadvantaged sector of our society by giving them a seat in Congress, make sure you are voting for the right party.

Next week: How we elect our Senators

January 21, 2010

Is redistricting in the Philippines possible?

And by redistricting, I mean reapportionment as stated in Article VI, Section 5, Paragraph 4:
Within three years following the return of every census, the Congress shall make a reapportionment of legislative districts based on the standards provided in this section.

Just recently, Cavite (and I think Camarines Sur) were reapportioned, although by standards I don't know. Perhaps they followed the "minimum" guideline (in order for any grouping of LGUs to become a district, it must have a population of at least 250,000 and should be composed of a “contiguous, compact, and adjacent territory.”). However, this led into Cavite increasing its districts from three to seven! Now, the province has the most number of Congressmen, and it is also the most populous province.
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Cavite is an odd case, however. Cavite leapfrogged everybody to become the most populous province in the country, that's why they were stuck with three districts for much of the operation of the 1987 constitution. Among the provinces (LGUs) that were previously at the top (in order of 2007 population), Bulacan, Quezon City, Pangasinan and Laguna, only Laguna and Quezon City were stuck with 4 congressmen. In fact, Quezon City's 2nd district (most of the northern part of the city) may be the most populous district in the country.

So why not redistrict the entire country? But first we have to set the rules.
First, limit the number of congressmen. Let us peg it at 250 level. Now, the constitution mandates that 20% of Congressmen must be sectoral (party-list) representatives. So 80% of 250 is 200. Now, let's divide the population of the Philippines (88,542,548) with 200. We come up with 442,713 (almost twice as much as the current minimum) rounded to the nearest whole number. Next, we get the population of the provinces, cities not within a province, and every LGU that has a Congressional district on their own, and divide that by 442,713, with the quotient rounded to the nearest whole number. Then, we reset LGUs that have a Congressman by their won which are not provinces back to zero (this affects two cities -- Navotas and San Juan. Provinces are allowed to keep their one representative even if they are below the 250,000-population floor.

The results are (click here if you are too bored to scroll down):










































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































LGUTypePopulationNewNow +/-

Caviteprovince2,856,76567-1
Bulacanprovince2,826,9365
6

Quezon Cityhighly-urbanized city2,679,450642
Pangasinanprovince2,495,841660
Lagunaprovince2,473,530642
Cebuprovince2,439,005660
Negros Occidentalprovince2,370,26956-1
Rizalprovince2,284,046541
Batangasprovince2,245,869541
Pampangaprovince1,911,951440
Nueva Ecijaprovince1,853,853440
Iloiloprovince1,691,87845-1
Manilahighly-urbanized city1,660,71446-2
Quezonprovince1,646,510440
Camarines Surprovince1,533,30535-2
Caloocanhighly-urbanized city1,378,856321
Davao Cityhighly-urbanized city1,363,337330
Leyteprovince1,327,31335-2
Isabelaprovince1,275,25134-1
Maguindanaoprovince1,273,715321
Tarlacprovince1,243,449330
Negros Orientalprovince1,231,904330
Boholprovince1,230,110330
Albayprovince1,190,823330
Bukidnonprovince1,190,284330
Lanao del Surprovince1,138,544321
Cotabatoprovince1,121,974321
Cagayanprovince1,072,57123-1
Zamboanga del Surprovince914,278220
Zamboanga del Norteprovince907,23823-1
Suluprovince849,670220
Davao del Norteprovince847,440220
Davao del Surprovince822,406220
Cebu Cityhighly-urbanized city798,809220
Zamboanga Cityhighly-urbanized city774,407220
Masbateprovince768,93923-1
South Cotabatoprovince767,255220
Misamis Orientalprovince748,791220
Oriental Mindoroprovince735,769220
La Unionprovince720,972220
Sorsogonprovince709,673220
Capizprovince701,664220
Samarprovince695,149220
Palawanprovince682,152220
Sultan Kudaratprovince675,644220
Taguighighly-urbanized city670,309220
Bataanprovince662,15312-1
Compostela Valleyprovince637,36612-1
Ilocos Surprovince632,25512-1
Pasighighly-urbanized city617,301110
Agusan del Surprovince609,44712-1
Valenzuelahighly-urbanized city568,92812-1
Cagayan de Orohighly-urbanized city553,96612-1
Parañaquehighly-urbanized city552,66012-1
Northern Samarprovince549,75912-1
Ilocos Norteprovince547,28412-1
Zamboanga Sibugayprovince546,18612-1
Surigao del Surprovince541,34712-1
Lanao del Norteprovince538,28312-1
Las Piñashighly-urbanized city532,330110
Misamis Occidentalprovince531,68012-1
General Santoshighly-urbanized city529,542101
Antiqueprovince515,265110
Camarines Norteprovince513,78512-1
Makatihighly-urbanized city510,38312-1
Bacolodhighly-urbanized city499,497110
Basilanprovince496,505110
Aklanprovince495,122110
Zambalesprovince493,08512-1
Davao Orientalprovince486,10412-1
Saranganiprovince475,514110
Muntinlupahighly-urbanized city452,943110
Tawi-Tawiprovince450,346110
Marikinahighly-urbanized city424,61012-1
Occidental Mindoroprovince421,592110
Iloilo Cityhighly-urbanized city418,710110
Surigao del Norteprovince409,46812-1
Eastern Samarprovince405,114110
Pasayhighly-urbanized city403,064110
Nueva Vizcayaprovince397,837110
Southern Leyteprovince390,847110
Benguetprovince372,533110
Malabonhighly-urbanized city363,681110
Agusan del Norteprovince314,02712-1
Iliganhighly-urbanized city308,04601-1
Mandaluyonghighly-urbanized city305,576110
Baguiohighly-urbanized city301,926110
Lapu-Lapuhighly-urbanized city292,530110
Romblonprovince279,774110
Navotashighly-urbanized city245,34401-1
Catanduanesprovince232,757110
Abraprovince230,953110
Marinduqueprovince229,636110
Auroraprovince187,802110
Kalingaprovince182,326110
Ifugaoprovince180,711110
Quirinoprovince163,610110
Guimarasprovince151,238110
Biliranprovince150,031110
Mountain Provinceprovince148,661110
San Juanhighly-urbanized city125,33801-1
Dinagat Islandsprovince120,813110
Apayaoprovince103,633110
Siquijorprovince87,695110
Camiguinprovince81,293110
Batanesprovince15,974110
Totals
85,784,804205230-25

Advised pop/district442,713
Min. pop/district250,000
Sources: Wikipedia -- Primary LGUs in the Philippines, 15th Congress of the Philippines.
Numbers in pink = less than the advised population per district; numbers in red = less than the legal minimum population per district.

There are some irregularities. Since previous Congresses divided the country indiscriminately through the years, we have an extra five seats. But it's five only seats, compared to the upcoming Congress where there are 230 district Congressmen and God knows how many sectoral representatives will be there (the total number of Congressmen fluctuate with every Congress).

There's a caveat with this: exactly how are we going to re-divide the country every census? Note that this provision has NEVER been implemented. Never. Americans have this problem in redistricting, but since they already know how, the question is who. The Cavite redistricting was via a Congressional act, and Dasmarinas would have had its own anyway even if the redistricting did not push through, plus the fact that the second (Bacoor) and third districts (Imus) are wholly composed of municipalities. State governments are in charge of how to redistrict their own state: they either do it via their state legislatures (which are partisan) or via a "non-partisan" redistricting committee.

I am not questioning the wisdom of redistricting in Cavite, or whether it was legal, for I believe there is no easy way in determining this question. In fact, there might be no way to answer if this was even proper. Perhaps this national reapportionment must be done now, and perhaps we should devise ways on how to do this.

Next: Party-lists.