Basketball's Road to Rio 2016

Almost all national basketball leagues are over, or are wrapping up. You know what that means? If you're following non-NBA basketball, that means it's time for the summer of international hoops: or more importantly, the last summer of international hoops as we know it. If you're following the NBA, well more, crazy free agency news, but that's why you came here for.

As every follower of international basketball should know by now, this is the last summer where the qualification to the Olympics will be done this way. In Tokyo 2020, the qualification system would be a lot different, which we would get to later. Beginning with the FIBA Oceania Championship in August 20 (or less than a month from now) until the final of the FIBA Asia Championship in October 3, there'd only be three days where there aren't any qualification games being played.

Your Asian Games basketball cheat sheet

Despite losing three consecutive games already, Gilas Pilipinas can still make it to the knockout stage of the 2014 Asian Games. How? See the cheatsheet below:

Advancing teams:

• Red: South Korea & Qatar
• Green: South Korea & Kazakhstan
• Yellow: Kazakstan & Qatar
• Blue: South Korea & Philippines
• Purple: See Note (A)
• Orange: See Note (B)

Notes after the jump:

2014 FIBA Basketball World Cup in one diagram

In honor of The Telegraph's awesome FIFA World Cup Venn diagram, I present the FIBA World Cup version. after the jump.

The case for Andray Blatche

Andray Blatche, barring a presidential veto, is bound to be the newest naturalized Filipino. There have been questions on why not X player? Indeed, why not Kevin Love, or all-D-League-team winner Justin Hamilton?

Indeed, there are many questions, but we'd all have to  restrict ourselves into some criteria.

Gilas Pilipinas #Spain2014 schedule

#Spain2014: What you may have missed

Draw's over, we've had enough with pots -- eight of them -- in one week. Everyone's has had their piece with what has happened, so I won't have any of those. Instead, I'd pitch in where everybody else apparently missed.

2014 FIBA Basketball World Cup mock draw 3.0

First, the massive news: FIBA has awarded the 4 wild cards to Brazil, Finland, Greece and Turkey. They complete the 24-team tournament in Spain.

Congrats @HellenicBF @BasketFinland @CBB_basquete @TurkishBBall! See you Monday at the Draw of #Spain2014! http://t.co/wnPWScsN6L
— FIBA (@FIBA) February 1, 2014

Second... wait, Finland? How did even Finland get in the mix? First, the massive, I repeat, MASSIVE withdrawals of Germany, Italy and China, and the pseudo-withdrawal of Russia opened up three slots in the wild card race.

2014 FIBA Basketball World Cup mock draw 2.0

A week from now FIBA will announce the four wild cards which will complete the 24-team FIBA Basketball World Cup in Spain. A week from Monday, they'd draw the teams to determine how the groups are split up. In between those dates, FIBA will announce how the teams will be seeded, and how the pots will be split up. Way back in September 2013, I already made a mock draw, before the conclusion of the EuroBasket. Now that all of the continental championships are over, and the 15 wild card entrants are known, it's way past time for a version 2 of the mock draw. Let's begin!

2019 FIBA Basketball World Cup qualifying preview

In case you're living under a rock, FIBA had earlier announced that they will change the qualifying system for the 2019 FIBA Basketball World Cup. Yes, including the new qualifying system, it'll be held five years from now. What does this mean for Gilas? Would this be easier or harder?

All-time Philippine basketball team head-to-head records

Did you know that no African team has beaten the Philippines in the FIBA World Cup or in the Olympics? Or the only European countries the Philippines has beaten on those competitions are Bulgaria, Estonia, France (twice), Hungary, Israel (twice; European for this purpose), Italy and... Spain? Or the American teams that the Philippines have yet to beat are Brazil, Panama, Peru and the USA? Or Korea is the team the Philippines has met the most times? (You would've probably guessed that right.)

You may have not been looking for it, but deep down inside your mind you must have wondered, just how many times has the Taiwanese and Gilas met? Now it's here: the head-to-head records of the Philippines against every country it has faced in the Olympics, FIBA Basketball World Cup and FIBA Asia Championship. No Asian Games, Southeast Asian Games, Jones Cup, friendlies, tune-ups and any tournament that is not any of those three. Get those, after the jump.

#Spain2014 European wild card race

The FIBA Basketball World Cup (nee FIBA World Championship), must be the only high profile "world championship" in the world that has berths assigned to wild cards, or entries that "qualify" to the tournament by writing an essay and donating a generous sum instead of participating in an actual tournament. Sure, the Olympics has them, mostly for individual sports such as swimming; even FIBA has wild cards for the Olympic basketball tournament, but there is a wild card tournament.

FIBA has two concrete criteria for wild cards:

• They must have competed in qualifying tournaments.
• Only three wild cards are allowed per FIBA zone.

That means pretty much everyone has a shot. Everyone with mad writing skills, and who has boatloads of money.

2014 FIBA Basketball World Cup mock draw I

With only the EuroBasket left to decide Europe's 6 berths in the 2014 FIBA Basketball World Cup, and with 7 quarterfinalists guaranteed to get in, that means only one unlucky team would not go to Spain outright. There are also four wildcards, but on 2010 three of them are on pot -- more on pots later -- so we can assign placeholders form them in the meanwhile.

Gilas 2.0 postmortem: The Philippines is going to the World Cup!

Nope, not that World Cup. The FIBA Basketball World Cup. It's been a long time coming, and the Gilas boys have finally broke through. In 2009, I've written about things the Gilas program can improve on. While not everything I wanted to see transpired, we got the silver that glistened like gold.

Unofficial men's FIBA rankings

Bored waiting for FIBA to update their FIBA Rankings after Gilas made it to the World Cup? Don't worry. I computed them just for you! Disclaimer: These rankings are unofficial, might be wrong, I might've missed something. But mostly this is how FIBA would've computed it.

2011 yearender: Gabi ng Parangal, local sports edition

2011 came and went like Asiong Salonga killing the bad guys then being killed himself (OOPS SPOILER ALERT!) so let's end the year with a completely irrelevant conclusion of the already-stated premise with some awards they had not come up with -- so yes, no team, player of the year and that shit. This time let's go on local sporting events. Ten categories of pure unadulterated sporting achievements.

Game of the Year: UAAP 2nd round of Ateneo vs Adamson.
It's a tough choice between 2nd round of Ateneo vs Adamson and the UFL Cup semifinal between Kaya and Loyola Meralco, but I had to give it to the Ateneo-Adamson game, solely because more people know the Ateneo Blue Eagles exist than the Loyola Meralco Sparks.

Series of the year: 2011 PBA Governors Cup Finals.
It's like the 2011 NBA Finals: Everybody picked the Heat to win; in this case, everyone picked Talk 'N Text to win, but Chot Reyes happened. Close second was the Philippines vs Sri Lanka series for World Cup qualifying.

Game Nobody Knew Happened of the Year: UFL Cup Semifinal, Loyola Meralco vs Kaya
The 3,000-man girl strong Rizal Stadium got wet with delight when Papa Phil scored a hat-trick.

The Kerby Raymundo Award for Best Quote of the Year: Ato Agustin
For saying, in Chot Reyes' face, that he's gay.

We Did Something but the Press Didn't Care Award: Smart Gilas
The long shots went to the semifinals of the FIBA Asia Championship. That's like a Southeast Asian team making it to the AFC Asian Cup, without hosting it.

We Did Nothing but the Press Cared Award: Azkals U-23
Let's face it: Two networks had parallel coverages on a team that finished dead last.

We Should've Joined WilTime Big Time Award: Philippine national dragon boat team
Not to rain on their parade or anything, but did the international dragon boat championship even made it to the sports page of Tampa newspapers?

The Graham Lim Award for Incompetence: The PSC and POC
For screwing up, yet again, the country's already screwed up sports program, if it exists.

The Sporting Event of the Year: Smart All-Star Weekend
Kobe Bryant live in the flesh. It's like David Beckham live in the flesh, in 1998, not 2011. And oh, don't forget Kobe had 2011 MVP Derrick Rose, and the 2012 MVP Kevin Durant in tow.

Bastardization of the Year: Smart Araneta Coliseum
"Araneta Coliseum" is a smart name. The new name smells like the Dunkin Donuts Center, or the EnergySolutions Arena.

2011 FIBA Asia Championship primer

The last among the intercontinental championship that doubles as an Olympic qualifier, the FIBA Asia Championship will be the most open in decades... that is, if you ignore the top two teams. Unfortunately, only one team goes to the Olympics outright, but fortunately, the top two teams had either suffered defeats in the tuneup tournaments, or suffered injuries.

This leaves a window of hope for the pretenders, Smart Gilas, or now aptly called Team Pilipinas.

While the recently-introduced format (started in 2009) actually allows you to lose some tough games at the start, the knockout stage will be cutthroat: one loss and you're out. And, as a quirk few people seem to notice, you don't just scout, or perhaps even follow with avid attention, the games within your own group, but the other group as well. The top three teams from Groups A and B shall form Group E, while Groups C and D's top 3 shall form Group F. If you're a discerning Smart Gilas, er Team Pilipinas fan, you do not only follow Group D, but Group C as well.

And that's what we're gonna do.

While China had an option on choosing which group to join after three members per groups were drawn, there was still a possibility of China and Iran facing in the Second Round: fortunately for them, Iran was drawn into Group B. Imagine how impossible will be the odds for Team Pilipinas if Iran landed on Group C.

With Iran and China drawn separately, the only time they'd meet will be at the final, assuming they emerged at the top of their 2nd round groups and they defeated all of their opponents.

What does this mean for Team Pilipinas? Whatever happens, they'd go through at least one team: in this case China, and if they advance to the knockout stage, they'd face Iran, assuming they'd also go that far.

The last time the Philippines and China met at the Asian Championships, China got their B-team and were beaten by the Chot Reyes-led Powerade Team Pilipinas twice: first in the hotly-contested prelim round game, and the last in the playoff for 9th place. This shows that if one of China's main gunners is missing, any team not named Iran has a decent chance of beating them.

Interestingly, Team Pilipinas and China play on the second day. Coach Rajko Toroman had earlier warned that the team might start cold in the tournament, as the TNT boys still have to learn the system. Unfortunately, they better learn fast, and enter the game with the mentality that China can be beaten. Beating China that early can waylaid them at the Iran side of the knockout stage bracket.

It's probably safe to say that both teams can beat, perhaps even easily, UAE and Bahrain, so we'd go to the potential 2nd round teams: the top three from among Japan, Indonesia, Syria and Jordan. Again, it's safe to say that Indonesia will be the team that'll drop out of that group, so we're left with Japan, Syria and Jordan.

The Philippines had been able to beat the Japanese teams in the post-BAP championships, even though they may had ranked higher at the end of the tournament. Nevertheless, this Japanese team made it to the final of the 2010 FIBA Asia Stankovic Cup beating Jordan (that'll be a nice rematch) and Qatar before being blown out by the Lebanese. In the last Jones Cup, the Gilas boys beat the Japanese. It is uncertain if the Japanese will return with their Jones Cup team intact or inject some new players, but the Philippines have been able to beat the Japanese in the games that matter lately -- see for example, in the 2009 championship. However, they had presented matchup problems to the Gilas boys, and even if the TNT boys had become accustomed to Toroman's system, if the Japanese send in new players, it may not be enough.

As for the Syrians, if Michael Madanly is back inject more carnage, the Philippines may find themselves in a thick of the fight to beat Syria. In the last Asian Championship the two teams faced, Chot Reyes coached the Tokushima team to victory in overtime.

Arguably, the toughest team to beat by the Pinoys will be the Jordanians. The Chinese may not be at full strength, but the Jordanians will be one of the top contenders this year. The demons of 2007 will be tested if both teams meet.

There are two scenarios going into the knockout stage. Unlike in 2009 where the Kuwaitis were the only "inferior" opposition (and the Yeng Guiao-coached team had a tough time against them, heck even Toroman coached Gilas to scary win against the Kuwaitis in last year's Asian Games), the 2011 2nd round is shaping up to be a tough cookie to crack, where there are no pushover teams.

Therefore it is key to finish well at the end of the second round as teams such as Iran, Lebanon, Korea and Iran, and even Chinese Taipei and Qatar, lie in wait in the quarterfinals. It's critical for the team to clinch a favorable quarterfinal matchup to ensure a fighting chance of advancing to the semifinals.

As for the semis, if the team goes that far, Iran and China are the potential opponents. So, it's quite impossible for the team not to encounter these powerhouses at any stage of the competition (any team that beats these two teams in the quarterfinals is giving the remaining teams a huge favor). Toroman should pump up his wards in case of a semifinal loss as there is everything to play for to earn those third place medals: a world qualifying tournament berth.

FIBA Asia Championship: by the numbers

So it's been almost a week since Iran made sure they defended the championship others said wasn't theirs by beaten China on their home floor, via a big margin. Jordan eased out Lebanon to deny the Lebanese a return trip to the World Championship, with the Jordanians punching their ticket with a debut in Turkey next year.

Chinese Taipei justified their wild card selection when they emerged on top of the defeated semifinalists with a blowout win against Qatar, while Korea made sure the Philippines won't pull a rug under them to deny the Fillpinos of a 7th-place finish.

So where did we go wrong? Or were we doomed from the start? Let's scrutinize the numbers, and the intangibles.

Scoring: The Philippines finished eighth in scoring in the tournament, with 80.1 PPG, behind Japan's 84.8 PPG, good enough for first. The Pinoys had a woeful 41.9 field goal percentage, tenth among sixteen teams, and also wound up tenth in three point shooting with a "fair" 30.7 clip (China's amazing 40.2 was first). Shooting freebies was even worse, with Shaq-esque number of 59.6, only ahead of countries such as Kwwait, UAE and Sri Lanka.

So what went wrong? Like other geniuses before me, their analysis of the team prior to the tournament was that it was "an athletic team, that can't shoot." We could've somewhat compensated with good set-up plays to free-up our shooters in the deliberate type of game. We were lucky when the shooters clicked, but when they didn't, we can't come up with a plan "B" as an alternative.

We did employ the run-and-gun offense (when we had the chance), but it was negated when the other team fouled on the break which reverted to the team relying on set-up plays that evolved into one-on-one plays. Even if we do get fouled, we can't shoot well, even without someone guarding the player so the defensive strategy was simplified.

Rebounding: Guess what, the team did wound up second in rebounding in Tianjin, 0.2 of a rebound behind Qatar. But 1/8 final round, the Philippines was second-worst among the teams that advanced to the quarterfinals, only ahead of the Japanese. On the games that mattered, we weren't able to rebound the ball, which could've translated into fastbreak opportunities.

Playmaking: The Philippines was 8th in assists in the championship, with 10 assists per game. That's sorta low, but you'd have to factor in that assists are defined differently in the FIBA game. Still, it is worth noting that India even finished ahead of us, with the South Asians ending up with a 11 assists mark.

As for turnovers, we actually turned out to be fourth-best, only having 12.1 TOs per game, behind only Japan, Korea and Jordan. With "turnover" having a universal definition, you can probably say "Yay!" but with ended up having more turnovers than assists! Again, the FIBA definition of "assist" is different (when you dribble the ball, it won't be counted as an assist, although here in the Philippines and in the NBA it is counted as such).

Defense: Team Pilipinas wounded up LAST in the steals department with 5.9 thefts per game. For a team composed of relatively shorter players, it is rather surprising weren't able to steal the ball more. The Pinoys had a better showing in blocks, ending up 12th with 1.7 per game. Still miserable when you compare it to Iran's tournament-best 5 per game.

But what could've been the deal-breaker are the fouls. Among the teams that advanced in the preliminary round, we are first in committing fouls with 21.9 per game. In the 1/8 finals, the Philippines was tied with Japan and Jordan for first with 22.3 per game. This led not just to foul trouble, but earlier situations of team penalty, that gave a ton of freebies to the opponent.

The intangibles: The key game for us was the preliminary round game against Korea. That would determine which team topped the group, but more than that, the results of the preliminary games except those involving the last-placed team would carry over to the 1/8 final round. The 1–0 vs. Korea would've gave us a theoretically easier opponent in the quarterfinals (in this case, Lebanon) rather than the #2 from the other group.

If we've won that game against Korea, we could've let expended a lot of energy on the Iran game (which we would've not won anyway), and could've used that energy on our quarterfinal opponent. Of course, if we've won against Korea, we might not have had the pressure of beating Chinese Taipei to ensure that we won't finish at worst fourth in the group.

The good side: At least you can see some diamonds in the rough:
We fared better than the Chinese against Iran. Heck, we were only behind the Jordanians and the Taiwanese in the deficit vs. Iran.
Cyrus Baguio should be in the next national team lineup, even if Gilas will take over.
Put emphasis on point guards that distribute the ball well. And quite frankly, get pure PGs.
Make sure the coach knows some plays. Heck, even JRU screens better than the RP 5.

And probably a ton more suggestions but they are worthless anyway since Toroman is a genius. But I haven't talked to Chito Narvasa yet.

(P.S.: Catch NCAA updates here tomorrow at 2PM. The games are San Beda vs. Mapua and Baste vs. Perps.)

More crap from Quinito

If you've read August 12's The Philippine Star, The Dean Quinito Henson has two articles in the sports section; his usual "Sporting Chance" column, and his preview of the Philippines-Kuwait game (in which the Philippines won). After the jump, you'll see part of the article (if the Star fails to archive it), and what was wrong there.

Powerade five can't take Kuwait lightly
By Joaquin Henson (The Philippine Star) Updated August 12, 2009 12:00 AM

MANILA, Philippines - Kuwait is the last team that Powerade Team Pilipinas will face before the FIBA-Asia knockout quarterfinals start on Friday in Tianjin and it’s a game coach Yeng Guiao can’t afford to lose.

The Philippines is safely in the eight-team quarterfinals but what Guiao is avoiding is a matchup against powerhouse China, expected to finish No. 1 from Groups C and D, now consolidated into Group F.

If the Philippines loses to Kuwait, it will end up with a record of 2-3. That will drop Powerade to No. 4 in the seedings of Groups A and B, now combined into Group E. If Chinese-Taipei also makes it to 2-3, Taiwan will be ranked No. 3 because of a superior quotient over Powerade.

Under FIBA rules, the quotient takes into account points for and against in all games, excluding those against eliminated teams. It will not matter that the Philippines beat Taiwan, 77-70, last Monday because the winner-over-the-other rule doesn’t apply. And the Philippines’ 84-point win over Sri Lanka, booted out in the first phase of eliminations, isn’t counted in the quotient. This interpretation is based on previous FIBA-Asia Championships. Confirmation on the application of the quotient system was being awaited at presstime.

Before yesterday’s games, the Philippines had a +3 quotient while Chinese-Taipei, +11.

There will be no complications if the Philippines beats Kuwait at 9 this morning. A win will raise Powerade’s record to 3-2 and unless Chinese-Taipei upset South Korea yesterday, Taiwan will wind up at 2-3, assuming a win over Japan today.

If the Philippines lands at No. 3, it will battle No. 2 from Group F in the knockout quarterfinals. Tipped to rank No. 2 in Group F is Jordan. If the Philippines is No. 4, it will play Group F No. 1 China.

Kuwait is ranked No. 52 in the FIBA world rankings. The Philippines is No. 62.

So what the eff is wrong there? Simple, no matter what happens on that game, the Philippines is sure to end up at number three at Group E. Even in Kuwait beats the Philippines by a million points, the Philippines will end up #3 in group E.

It seems that not just our players need exposure in the international game, even our journalists are. In FIBA tournaments, the first criteria on tiebreaking are the results of the games between the tied teams, not all teams. Ergo, if the Philipines, Chinese Taipei and Japan all managed to be tied with one another, the Philippines will emerge on top since they had beaten both teams. We won't even have to use the other criteria for tiebreaking (goal average between games of the tied teams, goal average for all games) to break that tie. The second-ranked team would be the winner of the Japan-Chinese Taipei game.

And note that point differential (aka "the quotient") is NOT even in the criteria for tiebreaking teams. FIBA has used this tiebreaking formula ever since they conducted tournaments involving league ladders.

So to reiterate: whatever happened earlier, and later in the day, the Philippines will finish third in Group E. The only relevant game for us is the Jordan-China game which will decide which team will face us in the quarterfinals. The winner avoids us and goes to the bottom half of the bracket (which we won't play until the final, if we get there), while the loser faces us.

FIBA Asia 2009 blind forecast

...because the readers of this blog deserve better!

More content on Friday, August 7.

Preliminary round
Group A
Korea 2-1
Philippines 2-1
Japan 2-1
Sri Lanka 0-3

Group B
Iran 3-0
Uzbekistan 2-1
Chinese Taipei 1-2
Kuwait 0-3

Group C
China 3-0
Kazakhstan 2-1
Qatar 1-2
India 0-3

Group D
Jordan 3-0
Lebanon 2-1
Indonesia 1-2
UAE 0-3

Eighth finals
Group E
Iran 4-1
Korea 3-2
Philippines 2-3
Chinese Taipei 2-3
Japan 2-3
Uzbekistan 2-3

Group F
China 5-0
Jordan 3-2
Lebanon 3-2
Kazakhstan 2-3
Qatar 1-4
Indonesia 0-5

Quarterfinals
Iran def. Kazakhstan
Lebanon def. Korea
Jordan def. Philippines
China def. Chinese Taipei

Semifinals
Iran def. Jordan
China def. Lebanon

Final
Lebanon def. Jordan
China def. Iran

Like I dunno if the results are even mathematically possible but I quickly checked them and they seem OK.

I should be so lucky

Ah, remember the 2007 FIBA Asia Championship? Where because of some Taiwanese, we got a really bad FIBA ranking since we sent AA-teams (if you use Excel, you'll get this) to FIBA tournaments where we'd lose by 40 points or more to Anjo Yllana's team.

So we got stuck on the group of death and never got out; the stats give proof that Group A was the "group of death" where the margins of victory never exceeded 13 points, as opposed to Group D for example, where the maximum blowout was a 40-point drubbing of Korea to Hong Kong.

So, where do we stand? Prior to the 2007 tourney, we were #65 in the world. Now we are not that much better, at #63.

So how did those FIBA honchos come up with those groupings? By the luck of the draw. But it's not via a total 100% "luck" since they separate the qualifiers into 5 pots. Actually, it's only 4 but the host team is on a separate pot and they can choose what group to go to.

In 2007, these were how the pots were drawn:

Pot 1 - the 4 finishers in the 2005 championships:
#11 China
#24 Lebanon
#25 Korea
#26 Qatar

Pot 2:
#37 Iran
#40 Chinese Taipei
#47 Syria
#61 Jordan

Pot 3:
#46 India
#50 Hong Kong
#56 Kazakhstan
#72 Indonesia

Pot 4:
#44 Kuwait
#56 UAE
#65 Philippines

The mechanics is that the teams from Pot 1 are drawn first. Like, Iran goes to Group A, Lebanon to Group C, and so on. Then those from Pot 2, then Pot 3 (at this point the host can also place themselves on a group) and finally Pot 4. Theoretically, the higher-numbered pot you are in, the easier your group should be, since you'll won't meet the theoretically better teams.

Currently, these are the current qualifiers, in their current FIBA rankings:
#10 China
#23 Iran
#24 Lebanon
#27 Qatar
#41 Kazakhstan
#42 Jordan
#46 India
#52 Kuwait

If FIBA Asia continues with their practice of assigning the previous tourney's top 4 in Pot 1, it'll be composed of:
#23 Iran
#24 Lebanon
#26 Korea
#41 Kazakhstan

Note that Korea and Kazakhstan haven't qualified yet, but it's sureball that Kazakhstan will qualify, as long as the other "-stans" in Central Asia won't join in qualification and allow them and India to qualify.

As for Korea, it's much more dicier, since FIBA Asia ditched the old method of qualifying and used the FIBA Asia Stankovic Cup as the new automatic qualifying tournament, instead of the previous tourney's top 4. Now, since China is an automatic qualifier as the host, East Asia still has 2 berths remaining, with three teams with realistic chances of qualifying: Korea, #33 Japan and #40 Chinese Taipei.

In Southeast Asia, it'll be the ultimate national disaster if the Philippines fails to qualify in the now 4-team SEABA tournament, especially with the Thais withdrawing. Only #61 Malaysia and #64 Indonesia have realistic chances of qualifying aside from the Philippines.

In the Gulf, #64 UAE, unranked Bahrain, unranked Oman and #66 Saudi Arabia will battle it out for their 2 berths.

So, I expect the Philippines to finally get out of the dreaded Pot 4 and go possibly to Pot 3 or even Pot 2. Predicted Pot 2 teams might be, with those in italics almost sure to be included:
#26 Korea
#27 Qatar
#33 Japan
#40 Chinese Taipei
#41 Kazakhstan
#46 India
a team from the #60s range

Pot 3 might be:
#40 Chinese Taipei
#41 Kazakhstan
#46 India
#52 Kuwait
#61 Malaysia
#63 Philippines
#64 Indonesia
#64 UAE

Pot 4 might be, with those in the italics almost sure to be included if they qualify:
#52 Kuwait
#61 Malaysia
#63 Philippines
#64 Indonesia
#64 UAE
#66 Saudi Arabia
unranked Bahrain
unranked Oman

As you can see, the more theoretically crappier teams that qualify, theoretically the easier the groupings can get, and we can even be assigned to Pot 2 much easier.

It all depends on the luck of the draw.